UFC 229: Khabib vs Mcgregor Quick Picks

Here are our predcited winners for UFC 229!  These are just straight win predictions that do not take into account betting odds.  We might think someone has a 60% chance of winning, but they’re -400.  That would be a terrible bet.  That is not factored in here.  Do not use this as a betting guide.  Predicted winners in bold.

Main Card (PPV, 10:00 PM EST)

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor – Khabib won by Submission in the 4th round.

Tony Ferguson vs. Anthony Pettis – Ferguson won by TKO between the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  Corner retirement.

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominick Reyes – Reyes won a unanimous decision.

Derrick Lewis vs. Alexander Volkov – Lewis won by KO in the 3rd round.

Michelle Waterson vs. Felice Herrig – Waterson won a unanimous decision.

Undercard (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 PM EST)

Sergio Pettis vs. Jussier Formiga – Formiga won a unanimous decision.

Vicente Luque vs. Jalin Turner – Luque won by KO in the 1st round.

Aspen Ladd vs. Tonya Evinger – Ladd won by TKO in the 1st round.

Scott Holtzman vs. Alan Patrick – Holtzman won by KO in the 3rd round.

Undercard (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 PM EST)

Lina Lansberg vs. Yana Kunitskaya – Kunitskaya won a unanimous decision.

Gray Maynard vs. Nik Lentz – Lentz won by TKO in the 2nd round.

Ryan LaFlare vs. Tony Martin – Martin won by TKO in the 3rd round.

Total = 5 / 12 = 41.6666%

UFC Fight Night: Sao Paolo Quick Picks

Here are our predictions for Saturday’s fight night in Sao Paolo.  These are just straight win predictions that do not take into account betting odds.  We might think someone has a 60% chance of winning, but they’re -400.  That would be a terrible bet.  That is not factored in here.  Do not use this as a betting guide.  Predicted winners in bold.

                            Main Card (FOX Sports 1, 10:30 EST)
Thiago Santos vs. Eryk Anders – Santos won by TKO between the 3rd and 4th rounds.
Alex Oliveira vs. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. – Oliveira won by KO in the 1st round.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Sam Alvey – Nogueira won by KO in the 2nd round.
Renan Barao vs. Andre Ewell – Ewell won a Split Decision.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Randa Markos – Majority Draw

                                 Preliminary Card (FOX Sports 2, 8:30 EST)
Charles Oliveira vs. Christos Giagos – Oliveira won by Submission in the 2nd round.
Evan Dunham vs. Francisco Trinaldo – Trinaldo won by KO in the 2nd round.
Luis Henrique vs. Ryan Spann – Spann won by Unanimous Decision.
Chase Sherman vs. Augusto Sakai – Sakai won by TKO in the 3rd round.

                            Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 EST)
Ben Saunders vs. Sergio Moraes – Sergio Moraes won by Submission in the 2nd round.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Gillian Robertson – Bueno Silva won by Submission in the 1st round.
Thales Leites vs. Hector Lombard – Leites won by Unanimous Decision.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Luigi Vendramini – Zaleski dos Santos won by Knockout in the 2nd round.
Livia Renata Souza vs. Alex Chambers – Souza won by Submission in the 1st round.

Total 8 / 14 = 57.14%

UFC Fight Night 136: Moscow Quick Picks

Here are our predictions for fight night in Moscow.  These are just straight win predictions that do not take into account betting odds.  We might think someone has a 60% chance of winning, but they’re -400.  That would be a terrible bet.  That is not factored in here.  Do not use this as a betting guide.  Predicted winners in bold.

MAIN CARD (UFC FightPass, 2 p.m. Est)

  • Mark Hunt vs. Aleksei Oleinik – Oleinik won by submission in the 1st round.
  • Jan Blachowicz vs. Nikita Krylov – Blachowicz won by submission in the 2nd round.
  • Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Andrei Arlovski – Abdurakhimov won by unanimous decision.
  • Thiago Alves vs. Alexey Kunchenko – Kunchenko won by unanimous decision.

PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FightPass 10:30 a.m. Est)

  • C.B. Dollaway vs. Khalid Murtazaliev – Murtazaliev won by stoppage in between the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
  • Jin Soo Son vs. Petr Yan – Yan won by unanimous decision.
  • Kajan Johnson vs. Rustam Khabilov – Khabilov won by split decision.
  • Desmond Green vs. Mairbek Taisumov – Taisumov won by unanimous decision.
  • Magomed Ankalaev vs. Marcin Prachnio – Ankalaev won by KO in the 1st round.
  • Jordan Johnson vs. Adam Yandiev – Johnson won by submission in the 2nd round.
  • Ramazan Emeev vs. Stefan Sekulic – Emeev won by unanimous decision.
  • Merab Dvalishvili vs. Terrion Ware – Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision.

Total 8/12 .666 percent

UFC 228 Quick Picks

Here are my quick picks on UFC 228.  Projected winners in bold.  These are just our thoughts to win the fight outright, no betting value is implied.  Most of these fights don’t have enough value to bet on.  We like bets on Rivera and Cody Stamann.

Main Card (PPV 10pm EST)

Woodley vs Till – Woodley won by 2nd round submission

Andrade vs Kowalkiewicz – Andrade won by 1st round KO

Magomedsharipov vs Davis – Magomedsharipov won by 2nd round submission

Rivera vs Dodson – Rivera wins by unanimous decision

Alhassan vs Price – Alhassan won by 1st round KO

Undercard (FX 8pm EST)

Esparza vs Suarez – Suarez won by 3rd round TKO

Sterling vs Stamann – Sterling won by 2nd round submission

Neal vs Camacho – Neal won by 2nd round KO

Byrd vs Stewart – Stewart won by 2nd round TKO

Early Prelims (UFC FightPass 6:15 pm EST)

Sanchez vs White – Sanchez won by unanimous decision

Miller vs White – Miller won by 1st round submission

Aldana vs Pudilova – Aldana won by split decision

Sanchez vs Brooks – Brooks won by split decision

How to Fix Bellator MMA

It will come as no surprise to fans that we love giving free advice, and also that I fancy myself one of the finest CEOs the lord has yet cranked out.  This week, I’ll do Bellator MMA a favor, and give them a short wrap up of how they could make their promotion a million times better.  First a little history.  Bellator is a MMA promotion whose fights currently air on the Paramount Network, which used to be called Spike TV.  They try to succeed by ripping off the most mundane parts of UFC, while leaving the most important aspects to chance.  What are the most important things they could do better?

  1.  Accessibility:  All fights on MUST be on regular TV.  Starting in September, Bellator plans to move some of it’s fights onto the streaming service called DAZN (pronounced “Da Zone”).  This streaming service is set to cost the same as the UFC Fight Pass, but with the upside that it will include the live pay per views.  The problem is, if Bellator can’t compete with UFC viewership for free, they can’t compete with UFC while charging the same as UFC.  Nobody is going to buy into DAZN, so nobody is going to watch those fights, sapping the enthusiasm for the Bellator fights that do remain on cable television.  This is all the more important because UFCs plan is the opposite of Bellators plan.  UFC signed a huge deal with ESPN to bring their fight nights to ESPN instead of the higher Fox cable stations, making UFC available to a wider audience for free.  Undoubtedly, ESPN will stupidly push some UFC fights onto it’s new streaming service, so that will give Bellator some breathing room for their bad decisions.  Long story short:  Every single fight should be on cable TV, on the same network.
  2. Smart Revenue:  Since they need to move to a non subscription model, Bellator needs to embrace advertisements and sponsors everywhere.  No spot on the floor or walls of the cage should be empty.  Even if they insist on doing subscription fights, the fights will be illegally live streamed, but streamers will never be able to remove ads printed onto the cage.  If they are smart and do all free fights, old fights will still end up on the internet, also with ads intact.  With this in mind these spots should sell for a high dollar value, because there is no way for anyone to watch the fight without seeing the ads.  Commercials and subscription fees are easily beaten.  Not one single consumer of the fight can beat built in advertising.
  3. Learn What Matters:  Rip off parts of the UFC that matter.  Stop combing the United States trying to find every Joe Rogan sound alike.  If you’re so desperate to recreate the success of Joe Rogan, instead of trying to hire broadcasters with a similar voice, hire broadcasters who will be liked for the same reason Joe Rogan is liked.  To be clear, the reason he is loved is because he’s highly knowledgeable about the sport, and is not afraid to talk down about the promotion.  If he thinks the ref made a wrong call he’ll say it, and people find that hilariously refreshing.  People aren’t tuning in for the pitch of his voice.  If we were to listen in to a Bellator board meeting, we would hear that the most important part of a commentator is that he be bald and have an inflection identical to Joe Rogan’s, whether or not he knew a thing about Mixed Martial Arts.
  4. Brand Fighters, Who is Who?:  It seems like Bellator doesn’t want you to know who is fighting in the match you’re watching.  For all of the things they rip off of UFC, the very good overlay is not something they considered.  During a Bellator fight, they don’t show the names or colors of either fighter at any time.  This is just a terrible mistake.  Like the everybody in management at Viacom should be filling soda at a fast food place kind of mistake.  How am I supposed to build an affinity for any of the fighters if Bellator won’t tell me who they are?  The names of the fighters, along with what color gloves they are wearing, needs to appear on the screen during every second of the fight.  Like it does in every other combat sport.
  5. Brand Fighters, Build a Real Website:  The Bellator website is just terrible.  Pretty much the only information you can glean off of it is who the current champions are.  Even that is laid out poorly.  The champions aren’t listed by weight and the women are right in the middle of the men.  I built my first website when I was 10-11 years old.  It cost $0.  It was significantly better than the Bellator website in every way.  The biggest problem with the Bellator website is there are no rankings.  You read that right.  There are no rankings in Bellator.  How do you know who is in the division besides the champion?  You don’t.  How do you know who to watch for?  You don’t.  How do you know who to get excited about?  You don’t.  You just don’t end up watching at all.
    This is an area where Bellator has two distinct choices:
    1) Copy UFC step for step.  Enlist handicappers and come up with a rankings system, even if they aren’t perfect.  Get them on the website, listed in order under every champion.
    2)  Go bankrupt.  Who cares about an MMA promotion where you only know eight fighters, one from each division?  Hopefully no one.  Create rankings or close down.
  6. Spend Where It Counts:  At it’s higher end, Bellator often pays more for fighters than UFC.  On the lower end, you’ll see fighters at the beginning of a Bellator card fighting for $1,500.  Obviously you’ve got to start somewhere, but when you consider that $1,500 isn’t enough to cover a single one of the dozens of expenses incurred for a fight, you have to wonder just how little you’re getting for that money.  It’s all the worse when you see how Bellator is spending their money.  Let’s see what a fighter can do with $1,500. Flying just a fighter round trip from Brazil to the US for a fight wipes out all of that money.  Forget how much their corner travel is costing them.  Supplements and training consumables for 3-5 months could easily run that much on their own.  Use of a gym for the same amount of time?  Also in excess of $1,500.  Food and medical for the training camp?  Money gone and then some.  Break your nose during the fight?  That’ll be at least $3,000.  Now in Bellator, unlike UFC, fighters are still allowed to rack up their own sponsors, but those values will likely shrink when the Bellator fights move off of cable and onto an anonymous streaming service that no one will watch.
    But Dan, this one seems like helpless bitching.  Of course everyone could use more money, maybe Bellator just doesn’t have it.  That would be great logic, except over the summer they reportedly paid 50 Cent $1 million for a useless catch phrase that will never make them $1 back.  That’s right.  50 Cent claims he sold his catch phrase “Get the Strap” to Bellator for $1 million.  I have to say “claims” because after being ruthlessly bashed for it, Bellator president Scott Coker denied buying the phrase.  It’s overwhelmingly likely he did though, as he was openly in dealings with 50 Cent for over a month and no other deal came to fruition.  Bellator’s defense was that the “$1 million sale claim was just to promote our other deal with 50.”  What other deal?  There isn’t one.  They are taking a page right out of Dana White’s playbook here.  Make a terrible 0/10 business decision that only you think is brilliant, the entire world laughs at you for it, you claim it never happened.  Classic Dana White.  Now classic Scott Coker.  $1 million dollars for a stupid phrase.  Now they are so embarrassed by it, they can’t even print it on shirts to try and get one dollar back from it.  For reference the entire payroll cost of Bellator 199 was $852,000.  That included three fighters making $150,000 each and 12 fighters that made less than $2,000 each.  The last thing I’ll mention is that the staging areas where the fighters first appear from when they walk out are incredibly cheap.  When they announce the biggest name in Bellator, and somebody like Chael Sonnen walks out, he’s being pointed to by two $20 rotating lasers while he walks down a ramp that’s maybe eight feet long.  There’s no spectacle to it at all.  If you hired a $250 wedding DJ, he would put on a better show than the fanciest thing Bellator has ever done.  Part of the problem is they put on their fights at smaller venues that UFC typically does, but this could be combated with more lights and pyro.  In general, no matter how good a deal the venue is, if the walk from the first appearance to the cage is less than 150 feet, the place shouldn’t have been booked.  People want to see the fighters walking out through the crowd, the music playing for more than three seconds, high fives, security holding the crowd back, it’s all part of the fun.  For that $1 million they wasted on 50 Cent, Bellator could have put on an entire fight and upgraded their stage setup permanently.

That’s the abridged version of what Bellator could do to shore up their biggest weaknesses.  Listen to Life’s a Gamble every week, where we tell people what the hell they’re doing wrong in their personal and professional lives and win bets along the way.

-The Best CEO,

Dan B

The 2nd Annual House Massive Skyway Party – August 4th-5th

Friends of the podcast remember that we spent a night last November on the Sunshine Skyway bridge, partying down and trading water for good stories.  The second event is happening in August and everyone is invited!!!!  Will we have a spinning wheel?  Probably.  Will we have prizes?  Definitely.  Beautiful dancing women?  Yep.  Will we be better organized than any of our previous live events?  Fuck yeah.  Everything else is up in the air.  Once again, the party will run 5pm on Saturday, until at least 8 am Sunday.  Over two dozen DJs will play on three stages.  It was a blast last year and you can bet it will be again this year.  It’s all free, the thing that matters more than anything else is that we all clean up and leave the place spotless.  Last year over 2,000 people packed the small beach and everything went off without a hitch.  Stay tuned for more!

Preakness Stakes!

Get out your Keystone Light and your Busch Light, it is the day of the Preakness Stakes!  For those of you that don’t know, the Preakness is the second and trashiest leg of the Triple Crown.  Young white trash from all over the northeast assemble at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore to get very drunk and run across the tops of port a potties.  Apparently, a few people bet on and watch horse races there also.

We had Justify to win the Kentucky Derby and we’re sticking with him again to take the slightly shorter Preakness.  Justify has been raced hard this year and apparently one hoof might be troubling him.  Despite this, and his low odds, we’re standing pat on the side of a strong horse steered by the elite Mike Earl Smith.  Apparently it’s going to be a sloppy in Maryland today, so I expect basically a rerun of the Derby.  The field will be smaller this time and Justify will see a rematch with Good Magic, his toughest competition.  Lone sailor could be in the money as well and nobody knows about Quip.  He’s owned by the same farm as Justify and he sat out the Derby to wait for the Preakness.  Man I love racing!

-Dan

Sunset Sounds Cruise Recap & Radio Bets

First and foremost the Sunset Sounds Cruise on Saturday was a big success.  Maybe too big of a success.  So many people wanted to get on the air that they were fighting for our seats.  We had game show winners and losers.  We had girls that Dan told to get the hell out of the chair.  We had guys that Dan told to get the hell out of their chair.  We had drunk girls spraying bubbles into the mixer.  We almost lost the whole night because we didn’t have a screwdriver, thankfully the crew of the Yacht Starship came through for us.  Big thanks to all of them, Andrew, and the other promoters as well.  Everyone we saw had a great time.  Also big thanks to each and every one of our sponsors:

Sundays Ice Cream in Palm Harbor.  At the corner of Alderman and US 19.

Shell Gas Stations

Terrence, Dan’s sweet black barber.

Five Guys Restaurant

Massage Envy

Coldstone Creamery

Subway

Wal Mart

Treasure Island Fun Center

Celebration Station

Lu – King of all Jits

Norma, through whom everything is possible.

And a special thanks to our friend Alicia for helping us out on short notice.

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The episode was very long and needs to be edited for time.  A lot of the girls had a hard  time understanding that we were on the air and they needed to talk in the mic the whole time.  Every time Dan reminded them of this, they cried and did it again anyway.  You know by now we won’t edit out any of the good fighting, just stupid silence.  It will be up sometime this week. Even though we all had headphones on, girls must have covered the mic and tried to mouth words to us no less than 50 times.

The podcast schedule has been slowed down as we work on the radio show, let’s catch up on those active bets.  We have a bet on the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series at +1200.  They’ve got a stacked lineup, two potential aces and maybe the best closer in the league, leading an incredibly strong bullpen.  They might not win the division but expect them to make the wild card game.  They are probably better suited than any other American League team to win a one game playoff, with Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel.  Definite value here.

We also made some suggestions of the NHL Stanley Cup Winner.  For the ultra conservative the Tampa Bay Lightning +650 still has some value.  They’re guaranteed a playoff spot at this point and there team is as strong in defense as they are in offense, sporting the highest goal differential in the league.  I personally avoid home team bets unless there is undeniable value.  By betting them I feel like I’m making an emotional bet (big no no) and I never feel good about fading the home team either.  Still the Lightning have made me money this year and have to be considered.

For the middle of the road bettor the Toronto Maple Leafs might be the best bet.  At +1100 with a guaranteed play off spot, they are nothing to sneeze at.  The Maple Leafs have the best record in the league when it comes to shootouts.  I know there aren’t shoot outs in the playoffs but to me its a good sign that their goalie and their forwards play well under the biggest pressure.

For someone that wants a (potentially low) chance at big money the LA kings have to be considered.  Because they are not locked in to the playoffs yet, their going off at +3300 odds.  The team has to be in consideration though because they have arguably the best goalie in the league and made trade deadline moves with the goal of winning this year.  For the first few months of the league the Kings we’re right alongside the Lightning as the most winning team in the league.  They have a solid +24 goal differential which means they’re playing better than their recent luck suggests.

Finally we have a bet on the MLB home run leader.  Not necessarily the most likely, Nelson Cruz has by far and away the most value of all of the competitors.  He’s going off at an incredible +2800.  With those odds if his chances of winning are even 3.5%, we make money.  In 2014, he lead the league in home runs.  In 2015, he was second in home runs.  In 2016, he was second in home runs.  Last year he was sixth in home runs.  2014, when he lead the league, was his most recent contract year.  That’s important because this will likely be his last contract year as he’ll be 38 years old at seasons end.  Expect him to put the pedal to the metal looking for the last 1-3 year contract of his career.  He’s a pure power guy, and of all the tools in baseball, power declines the least with age.  Get a piece of this bet.

Check out our radio bets every weekend on WZIG 104.1 FM if you’re in North Pinellas.  No matter where you are WZIG streams live online 24/7 at http://www.wzig.org. Sports Predictions with Dan and Tony plays every Saturday at 10am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm and Sundays at 7am, 10am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm.  Usually 5 minutes after the top of the hour.

-Dan

Sunset Sounds Cruise – March 10th

We’ve been telling you for months and now the time is less than three weeks away.  On Saturday March 10th, the Sunset Sounds Cruise sails out of Clearwater Harbor.  The cruise will last a few hours and will feature more than a dozen artists across three stages.  This whole party takes place on the 600 passenger, Yacht Starship, the largest ship in Tampa Bay.  Life’s a Gamble will be broadcasting live the whole night while we host game shows for fabulous prizes.  The price of tickets also includes a pre party and an after party.  The whole event could run from 2 pm to 2 am for the super committed.  This whole thing is right in the middle of Spring Break.  Expect a rager.

Game Show Preview

Are You Smarter Than Nic?  –  Play against, or with, trivia Guru Nic

Dan, The Beast – Progressive level trivia game where you play against Dan, the trivia machine.  Levels are structured so that he must do much better than you in order for him to win.

Dice of  Fortune – Ripoff of Wheel of Fortune.  Which is in itself a ripoff of Hangman.  Roll a 20 sided dice to determine a prize and then go from there.  Head, body, arms and legs.  No fingers and toes bullshit.  Meaning you’re 6th wrong answer kills your hangman.

Music Jeopardy – One player Jeopardy, which isn’t really Jeopardy.  Almost entirely about Music, questions are worth different values and points are lost for wrong attempts.

The Price is Wrong – Guess the price people are trying to sell shit for on the internet.  Think Craigslist and Facebook for sale groups.

Win Tony’s Alcohol – The ship sells alcohol all night long and in this game you can play for it.  Be careful though, you’ll be playing against Tony, who really wants that alcohol.

Who Wants to Be a Gift Card Millionaire? – Face off against another contestant to see who plays and then climb your way up the ladder or play it safe and stick with a low prize.  One wrong answer and you’re out!

Sponsor’s Preview

Sunday’s Mini Donuts and Ice Cream in Palm Harbor.  A brand new ice cream shop specializing in mini donuts.  One lucky contestant on the cruise will win free mini donuts for one year!

https://www.facebook.com/sundaysicecream19/

Win gift cards to at least a half dozen other Bay area restaurants.  We’re working to cover contestants from a wide area.

Tickets to the cruise will sell out very soon.  Buy tickets and get more details right away at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sunset-sounds-cruise-spring-break-bigger-better-mega-yacht-tickets-41146121156?aff=eac2

Dan & Tony Premiere on WZIG 104.1 FM

We’ve been working on this about two months and we’re excited to say that tomorrow is the premiere of Dan and Tony’s Profitable Picks and Predictions sports betting radio segment.  The segment will air 11 times each weekend alongside the Ray Kramer Sports Report.  The times are Saturdays: 10 am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm.  Sundays: 7 am, 10 am, 12 pm, 2 pm, 4 pm, 6 pm.  If you’re in North Pinellas, West Hillsborough or south Pasco county you can listen in on FM 104.1   If you’re not local you can listen anywhere in the world on www.wzig.org

The segment will be two parts.  Each week we’ll be explaining some new gambling term and separately providing predictions and bets for two of that weekends games.  We’re starting off with our collective bet on Superbowl 52.  Be sure to listen for us every weekend.  Listen to WZIG in general, they’re a great variety station that plays literally everything.  Number one hits that we’re released a few days ago to big band music from the 30s.  The best thing is, there are no commercials ever.  Head over to www.wzig.org and if you can spare it, make a donation to this very cool station.  No commercials!

-Dan