Won 3 out of 5 bets. Good for +200 total. +180,+120,+100,-100,-100. Missed out on Kings -1.5 and Devils +170. Still feel like there was a lot of value in both. In general you should NOT bet on 5 out of 6 games in a day. Selectivity is the only way to stay profitable betting sports over any real period. Our lock, Bruins -1.5 over the senators for +180 hit. This was a rare night for 5 bets in one sport. Still eeked out +20 better than if I had only bet the lock. Hope you guys cashed in too. Stay tuned for the newest episode Monday, recorded live tonight at Derby Lane. Stacy answers a listener question about her dating history and all hell breaks loose when she calls her no good ex demanding her money back. She is as funny as she is no nonsense. Also the government comes after Tony for “their” money……after eight years. Check it out Monday. Maybe some new bets before then. Keep an eye on us on Best Sports Picks Today.
Hey guys. We’ll be appearing and recording tonight at Derby Lane from 7:30 – 9:30, but first lets look at all the NHL games tonight.
First let’s see the over/unders. The line that’s most off is the O/U 5.5 in the Hurricanes/ Blues game. I have the game scoring a bit over 4.5 goals. The under will cost you -120, but consider it. This line is off. Also very appealing is the second worst line tonight, the over in the Kings/Canucks game. Which can be had right now for +120. I have that game coming in at 6 goals. At -120 you need a bet to hit at least 55% of the time to start making money. You only need 45% at +120. They’re both very tempting bets. I’ve got the Blues winning 3-2. The Kings/Canucks looks to me like 4-2 kings or 3-3 and then 4-3 in OT.
Going into the spreads and moneylines the Devils +170 looks very interesting. In the last month they’ve scored almost identically to the capitals while only giving up a fraction of a goal per game more. At +170 we only need the Devils to win 37% of the time or more.
The biggest upset of the night looks the be the Bruins over the Senators. I have them going into the end of the game up a goal and a half. The senators defense has been piss poor lately and the teams offenses are equally lopsided. Ottawa played last night, Boston did not. Looks very good for the Bruins -1.5 at +180.
The Kings -1.5 over the Canucks for +210 looks appetizing. At that price we need it to come in less than a third of the time to start making money. I have the Kings going into the end of the game up almost a full goal. That’s empty net territory and I like their chances.
Here are the bets.
Lock: Bruins -1.5 against Senators +180.
Lean: Kings -1.5 against the Canucks +210.
Lean: Over 5.5 Kings/Canucks +120.
Lean: Devils +170 against the Capitals.
Gamblers Choice: Under 5.5 Hurricanes/Blues -120.
Honestly, I’ll be betting all of these. I’ve put them in approximate order of confidence. Blame me for all but the Gamblers Choice. If you’re not familiar, Gamblers Choice are bets I think YOU should consider heavily for YOURSELF. I’m pretty confident in the under in that game, the line is trash, but I generally don’t like favorites. If tonight’s other lines were tighter that bet would definitely be a lean. They’re only a slight favorite so I’m gonna roll with it.
If you were playing along at home last night you made +255. Let it roll tonight. Take Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 over Vegas Knights +224. I have the Lighting better than Vegas by half a goal. You know we like the hockey -1.5 bets. Why? If the Lightning are ahead a goal in the last minute, Vegas pulls their goalie. If they bobble the puck, they’re down by two. We cash in enough of the time to be profitable if the odds are right. If you like a team to definitely win a game and they’re getting more than +200 to win by at least 1.5, take it. The Lighting defense has been much better than Vegas over the course of the last month. The Lightning have also been outscoring Vegas by an almost as impressive margin. Expecting Vegas to be capped at 2, at most. This isn’t an emotional hometown bet. I wouldn’t do that to you. Tony might. Hit the book!
Five games tonight, here’s what I see. If you’re going to bet them get them in quick.
I have the Sharks beating the Oilers. The sharks are getting +120. They’re on the road but I’ll still lock this in as a lean. Sharks +120.
I have the Avalanche beating the penguins by a tiny margin. They’re getting +145 and they’re playing at home. This is your lock. Avalanche +145.
I have the Devils beating the Ducks @ Devils. Devils -1.5 is +210. At +210 the Devils only need to win by two goals 32.26% of the time for us to break even. I’ll list this play as a Gambler’s choice. That basically means: It’s my fault if you win, your fault if you lose. Devils -1.5 over Ducks +210.
I like the over 38 in the Colts/Bills Game. I’m expecting a score of about 44. The rest of the over/unders this week look pretty much spot on.
I also like the Packers -3 over the Browns. The Packers lines seem really undervalued so far this season. I have the packers winning the game by 4.5. A line being off by only a point and half doesn’t seem like the one to bet on but the Browns have flown under all possible expectations this season.
I have the Bengals beating the bears by less than 2.5. The Bears are going off at +6. Tempting bet here.
Ravens are getting +5 and I actually have them beating the Steelers by just under a point. The game is @ Steelers and the temperatures are Arctic but I still like this one.
Jets -1.5 over the Broncos also looks tempting. I have them winning by at least 4.
In order I’d go:
Packers -3 over the Browns. Lock
Over 38 Colts/Bills. Lean
Bears + 6 over the Bengals. Gamblers choice. Bad on the road, numbers on their side.
Jets -1.5 over the Broncos. Gamblers choice. Bad on the road, numbers on their side.
Ravens +5 over the Steelers. Gamblers choice. Bad on the road, numbers on their side.
Stick to the first two bets. Maybe spice it up with whichever gamblers choice you’re feeling. They’re all on the road in tough spots but their season numbers say they’re good bets.
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A lot of the games this week are literal pick ’ems. As usual by this point in the season, most of the lines are spot on. Here’s the few that look off to me, in order.
I have the Texans beating the Titans by 1.2 points. The Titans however are -7. I’ll rush to take Texans +7. The Texans on the moneyline are getting +250. That’s tempting, if you really want to gamble with room for value, consider it. I don’t have shit for cash. I’m sticking to what looks to me like a conservative lock. Texans +7 -110.
I have the Vikings beating the falcons by a point and half. The Falcons are -3. I’ll take the Vikings +3. The price of this bet is fairly steep but I still think the wrong team is favored in several ways. Use your best judgment here.
The Browns are +14 against the Chargers. I have them losing the game by just under 8. Just by the numbers this looks like a bigger mismatch than Vikings v. Falcons. You don’t want the browns on your ticket but at the same time the numbers beg for you to take them. DON’T BET THIS GAME AT ALL. IT’S A TRAP!
Most value this week is definitely the Texans. If you’re the type to bitch about a losing pick, stick to that game.
I see three tempting bets for tomorrow. Two dogs and a favorite. Listed in terms of confidence.
First I like the Packers +14 over the Steelers, -105. I think the Packers will lose by about 4.5. Plenty of wiggle room there.
First I like the Bucs +10 over the Falcons -105. Very similar bet. I don’t see the Bucs winning the game but I do see them losing by about 3. That’ll be good enough.
Third, I’d take the Jaguars -5.5 over the Cardinals -110. I have the Jags winning this game by just over 9 points. Least confident of these three bets. In general I prefer betting value dogs. This one has the least margin of error and at -110 I’m paying the highest price.
Good luck all,
Last Saturday night and Sunday morning was the Massive Skyway Party. Tony and I made our way down there to meet up with a friend or two and make dozens of new ones. This was an old school rave if ever there was one. On an island right before the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in St Petersburg Florida. No admission, no security, and 28 DJs over a 14 hour period. Like any good rave it wasn’t completely clear how to get there. Unlike most raves, thousands of people were invited on Facebook. We hung out from about 10pm to 3:30am. We traded complimentary bottles of water for cool stories live on the podcast. We met some awesome people and heard some great stories. My car got stuck in sand, Tony got it out. Lots of helpful people everywhere. No fights, no thefts, no arrests and I honestly didn’t even see a single person crying. Well over 1500 people showed up at one point or another during the night. Even though the cast will be over three hours long this one will be a can’t miss. Available tomorrow, 11-23-2017, Thanksgiving Day, wherever fine podcasts can be found.
Palm Harbor played their 6th and final JV game of the season against Countryside on Friday Oct 20th. A lot of interesting things to say about this game. First Countryside has an incredible defense for a JV team, probably even a little bit better than Palm Harbor. I really can’t believe the game was as high scoring as it was. It’s worth pointing out that at least 3 of the 7 touchdowns in the game came by way of kick returns. This has been a common thread in every JV game we’ve seen. Low level punters combined with lackluster special teams defense has had us see scoring within the first two minutes of all 6 JV games we attended.
This really was a game of defense even though it saw 7 touch downs total. Regulation ended with a tie of 20-20. At the high school level there is a back and forth overtime where each side starts at the opposite 10 yard line with a full set of downs to try and make a touchdown. If they get a touchdown their opponent has a shot until one of them doesn’t make it. Countryside started over time with the ball but Palm Harbor managed to stop them short. Palm Harbor got the ball but made no gain on Countryside. Countryside got the ball and scored on the second down, extra point was good. Palm Harbor got the ball and was stopped short of the five yard line. 27-20 Countryside.
The JV season is now over. Two games were cancelled due to Hurricane Irma, the JV season is supposed to be 8 games. The good news is our protege Lu was promoted up to the Palm Harbor varsity team which has two or three more games. Hopefully he’ll see some playing time this Friday against Durant. Varsity is pretty much getting their ass kicked this year, is out of the playoff picture and hopefully has some room for Lu so he can get some game time. He’s likely to be a varsity starter from game one next year.
Palm Harbor JV Football 2017 Fall Season
Game 1: Palm Harbor 38 vs Tarpon 0
Game 2: Palm Harbor 41 vs Seminole 6
Game 3: Palm Harbor 17 vs Northeast 0
Game 4: Palm Harbor 0 vs East Lake 6
Game 5: Palm Harbor 21 vs Largo 8
Game 6: Palm Harbor 20 vs Countryside 27
Season Totals: Palm Harbor 137 vs Opponents 47
Palm Harbor averaged 22.83 points per game. Their opponents averaged 7.83 points per game.