NFL Sunday 1-14-2017

My only NFL bet this week is going to be on the Saints-Vikings game.  The spread is Saints
+4 -110.  This needs to come in 53% of the time for us to make money.  I don’t really like the value in that but it’s not far off.  Still, we can do better.  Saints to win the game out right is +170.  That only needs to happen 37% of the time for us start making money.  I have the game handicapped completely even by the numbers.  Saints have a better offense by about 5 ppg.  Vikings have a better defense by about 5 ppg.  Vikings will have home field but that’s not enough to get me away from that juicy +170.   Saints +170 v. Vikings.

-Dan

Must Win Wednesday

Wednesday, January 10th, was a very busy day all told.  Let’s start from the beginning of the day and work our way through.

First I’m extremely happy to announce that we are now sponsored by Quickdog and its maker quickreckoning.  Quickdog is greyhound handicapping software that automatically sources data from every track in the country.  I’ve used it personally for ~2 years and we’re going to start using it for all of our episodes Live from Derby Lane.  Quickdog will save us money because we don’t have to buy the programs anymore.  Quickdog will also save us time in between races by distilling several of the columns in the program.  Rather than manually figuring out 6 average times for all 8 dogs, Quickdog provides a simple average speed for every dog.  Everything in the program can be edited, so for example you can choose to see the totaled results of the last 3 races of a dog or the last 30 races of a dog.  The level of customization will please literally everybody.  It can be as simple as you want. On the flipside if you’re so inclined you can make your method for selecting greyhounds and even test how will your system would have worked based on past results.  The ability to rigorously test your system without spending a dime or even going to the the track is almost priceless.  If you play dogs at just one local track I would suggest you use quickdog instead of the program.  If you bet simulcast at multiple tracks you would be insane not to use Quickdog.  The subscription includes past races and the next days program for every track in the United States.  They even have data for UK tracks.  Check out their website http://www.quickreckoning.com

Second,  I screwed up some important details of the Sunset Sounds Cruise.  I mentioned on a podcast that alcohol was included.  Alcohol IS NOT included in the price of a ticket.  Some small day cruises give away alcohol because they don’t want to obtain the incredibly expensive liquor license to sell it.  That IS NOT the case on this cruise.  It is a huge dinner ship that does have its own liquor license.  Alcohol will be available but IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF A TICKET.  This was totally my fault for assuming key details.  At no time did any of the promoters tell me there was free alcohol.  This was my mistake and I alone should be blamed.  This podcast is in no way involved with organizing the cruise and nothing I say about it should be considered binding or held against the promoters.  You should all still come on the cruise it will be a very good time and the tickets are a good deal.  This same ship charges more for a simple two hour cruise without music.  This is an all night deal with three levels of music. Pre-parties and after parties on shore.  Get your tickets soon! The VIP really will sell out very quickly.  The tickets are not refundable but could be potentially resold on the open market.  Use promocode “Legwen” to save a couple bucks.  Enough to buy a drink 😉

Buy your tickets and get all the correct details from the promoters here:  https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sunset-sounds-cruise-spring-break-bigger-better-mega-yacht-tickets-41146121156?aff=eac2

Never take a comedian seriously.

Third, Tony and I hit two races at the horse track this afternoon.  The horse track has been jam packed for the last few years and it’s very difficult to record there.  It’s not a matter of permission, on the average race day the track is standing room only and we’re very hard to hear.  The first race had 5 scratches out of 9 entries.  So with 4 horses to choose from we obviously both bet $2 straight Trifectas.  I was winning until the last 20 feet.  Tony had the same luck on the next race, off by just a hair.  We both lost two races, which was rough start to a day where the court was most likely going to demand $300 from me.  Hence, must win Wednesday.

Fourth, we checked out some office space for a purpose built recording studio.  This time we looked at a high rise in Largo.  The prices were good and we liked what we saw and heard.  Unlike the office we saw last week this one includes wired internet and wifi.  That represents a pretty solid deal, business internet goes for $95 a month from the local cable company.  Still working with the landlord to work out a potential price.  We’re very excited about having our own studio and we’ll keep you up to date.

Fifth, was the court date for the speeding ticket I was contesting.  Long story short I got an illegitimate speeding ticket from the least credible cop in the county in October.  This man has been demoted, been suspended, been reprimanded and was responsible for the murder of a 19 year old man in 2002.  The Sheriff’s Office tried rescheduling my court date multiple times but today was finally the day.  I took a lot of time and effort and compiled a case that would be worthy of professional representation.  I had all the facts about the Deputy, and about my car.  I drive an old slow car and he was accusing me of going impossibly fast.  When the time came the Deputy didn’t show up and the case against me was dismissed.  I’m glad to be able to keep my last $300 in my pocket.

Finally we cut a new podcast tonight explaining most of what you just read.  Tony had class tonight so our Superfan Lu joined in his place.  Lu told us about his success as the King of the Jits.  For new fans of the podcast, Lu was a heavyset 14 year old who asked us to make him the coolest kid in town.  We gave him perfect advice, he worked harder than most people could ever dream of and I can confirm he absolutely is the coolest high school freshman in the history of the town.  Eclipsing the former coolest high school freshman, yours truly.  It’s long and rambling but if you’re a big fan of the show you’ll definitely want to catch up with Lu.

We’ll be at Derby Lane on Saturday night, January 13th.  Come see us if you can. Wish us luck and listen in on the next podcast.

-Dan

NHL January 7th

Here’s a couple of bets for tonight.

Lock:  Bruins -110 over the Penguins.  The Bruins are killing the Penguins in offense and defense over the last month.  Really, they’re killing the whole league.  Easy bet here.

Lean:  Florida Panthers +145 over the Blue Jackets.  Columbus is giving up a good bit more goals than the Panthers over the last month while their offenses are very similar.  At +145 the Panthers only need to win 41% of the time to make us money.  I think they’re just under 55% to win the game.

-Dan

Sunset Sounds Cruise

We’re going on a one night cruise and you’re all invited.  Check out the event flyer but here are the important parts.

When:  Saturday March 10th.  All night including pre-party and after party.

Who:  Dan, Tony, and Stacy.  Along with 600 other lucky people.

Where:  The Clearwater Harbor Marina on the 600 passenger Yacht Starship.  A dinner cruise ship and the largest passenger ship in Tampa Bay.

What:  A three story rave at sea.  We have the promoters blessing to record live and we’ll have all sorts of crazy shit going on.  We’ll be doing game show style trivia questions for lucky participants on board.  Win fabulous prizes and hang out with us all night.  Buy tickets quickly because they will sell out.  VIP tickets are almost entirely sold out already.  Use promo code “legwen” to save a few bucks.  There will be no shortage of entertainment that night.  Get tickets immediately.  If you haven’t been to Clearwater Beach during Spring Break get down here.

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sunset-sounds-cruise-spring-break-bigger-better-mega-yacht-tickets-41146121156

NHL Results

Won 3 out of 5 bets.  Good for +200 total.  +180,+120,+100,-100,-100.  Missed out on Kings -1.5 and Devils +170.  Still feel like there was a lot of value in both.  In general you should NOT bet on 5 out of 6 games in a day.  Selectivity is the only way to stay profitable betting sports over any real period.  Our lock, Bruins -1.5 over the senators for +180 hit.  This was a rare night for 5 bets in one sport.  Still eeked out +20 better than if I had only bet the lock.  Hope you guys cashed in too.  Stay tuned for the newest episode Monday, recorded live tonight at Derby Lane.  Stacy answers a listener question about her dating history and all hell breaks loose when she calls her no good ex demanding her money back.  She is as funny as she is no nonsense.  Also the government comes after Tony for “their” money……after eight years.  Check it out Monday.  Maybe some new bets before then.  Keep an eye on us on Best Sports Picks Today.

NHL Bets 12-30-2017

Hey guys.  We’ll be appearing and recording tonight at Derby Lane from 7:30 – 9:30, but first lets look at all the NHL games tonight.

First let’s see the over/unders.  The line that’s most off is the O/U 5.5 in the Hurricanes/ Blues game.  I have the game scoring a bit over 4.5 goals.  The under will cost you -120, but consider it.  This line is off.  Also very appealing is the second worst line tonight,  the over in the Kings/Canucks game. Which can be had right now for +120.  I have that game coming in at 6 goals.  At -120 you need a bet to hit at least 55% of the time to start making money.  You only need 45% at +120.  They’re both very tempting bets.  I’ve got the Blues winning 3-2.  The Kings/Canucks looks to me like 4-2 kings or 3-3 and then 4-3 in OT.

Going into the spreads and moneylines the Devils +170 looks very interesting.  In the last month they’ve scored almost identically to the capitals while only giving up a fraction of a goal per game more.  At +170 we only need the Devils to win 37% of the time or more.

The biggest upset of the night looks the be the Bruins over the Senators.  I have them going into the end of the game up a goal and a half.  The senators defense has been piss poor lately and the teams offenses are equally lopsided.  Ottawa played last night, Boston did not.  Looks very good for the Bruins -1.5 at +180.

The Kings -1.5 over the Canucks for +210 looks appetizing.  At that price we need it to come in less than a third of the time to start making money.  I have the Kings going into the end of the game up almost a full goal.  That’s empty net territory and I like their chances.

Here are the bets.

Lock:  Bruins -1.5 against Senators +180.

Lean:  Kings -1.5 against the Canucks +210.

Lean:  Over 5.5 Kings/Canucks +120.

Lean:  Devils +170 against the Capitals.

Gamblers Choice:  Under 5.5 Hurricanes/Blues -120.

 

Honestly, I’ll be betting all of these.  I’ve put them in approximate order of confidence.  Blame me for all but the Gamblers Choice.  If you’re not familiar, Gamblers Choice are bets I think YOU should consider heavily for YOURSELF.  I’m pretty confident in the under in that game, the line is trash, but I generally don’t like favorites.  If tonight’s other lines were tighter that bet would definitely be a lean.  They’re only a slight favorite so I’m gonna roll with it.

Tonight: Lightning @ Vegas

If you were playing along at home last night you made +255.  Let it roll tonight.  Take Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 over Vegas Knights +224.  I have the Lighting better than Vegas by half a goal.  You know we like the hockey -1.5 bets. Why? If the Lightning are ahead a goal in the last minute, Vegas pulls their goalie. If they bobble the puck, they’re down by two.  We cash in enough of the time to be profitable if the odds are right.  If you like a team to definitely win a game and they’re getting more than +200 to win by at least 1.5, take it.  The Lighting defense has been much better than Vegas over the course of the last month.  The Lightning have also been outscoring Vegas by an almost as impressive margin.  Expecting Vegas to be capped at 2, at most.  This isn’t an emotional hometown bet.  I wouldn’t do that to you.  Tony might.  Hit the book!

-Dan

Some NHL bets tonight.

Five games tonight, here’s what I see.  If you’re going to bet them get them in quick.

I have the Sharks beating the Oilers.  The sharks are getting +120.  They’re on the road but I’ll still lock this in as a lean.  Sharks +120.

I have the Avalanche beating the penguins by a tiny margin.  They’re getting +145 and they’re playing at home.  This is your lock.  Avalanche +145.

I have the Devils beating the Ducks @ Devils.  Devils -1.5 is +210.  At +210 the Devils only need to win by two goals 32.26% of the time for us to break even.  I’ll list this play as a Gambler’s choice.  That basically means: It’s my fault if you win, your fault if you lose.  Devils -1.5 over Ducks +210.

-Dan

NFL Bets Sunday 12-10-2017

I like the over 38 in the Colts/Bills Game.  I’m expecting a score of about 44.  The rest of the over/unders this week look pretty much spot on.

I also like the Packers -3 over the Browns.  The Packers lines seem really undervalued so far this season.  I have the packers winning the game by 4.5.  A line being off by only a point and half doesn’t seem like the one to bet on but the Browns have flown under all possible expectations this season.

I have the Bengals beating the bears by less than 2.5.  The Bears are going off at +6.  Tempting bet here.

Ravens are getting +5 and I actually have them beating the Steelers by just under a point.  The game is @ Steelers and the temperatures are Arctic but I still like this one.

Jets -1.5 over the Broncos also looks tempting.  I have them winning by at least 4.

In order I’d go:

Packers -3 over the Browns.  Lock

Over 38 Colts/Bills.  Lean

Bears + 6 over the Bengals.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Jets -1.5 over the Broncos.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Ravens +5 over the Steelers.  Gamblers choice.  Bad on the road, numbers on their side.

Stick to the first two bets.  Maybe spice it up with whichever gamblers choice you’re feeling.  They’re all on the road in tough spots but their season numbers say they’re good bets.

-Dan

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