Friends of the podcast remember that we spent a night last November on the Sunshine Skyway bridge, partying down and trading water for good stories. The second event is happening in August and everyone is invited!!!! Will we have a spinning wheel? Probably. Will we have prizes? Definitely. Beautiful dancing women? Yep. Will we be better organized than any of our previous live events? Fuck yeah. Everything else is up in the air. Once again, the party will run 5pm on Saturday, until at least 8 am Sunday. Over two dozen DJs will play on three stages. It was a blast last year and you can bet it will be again this year. It’s all free, the thing that matters more than anything else is that we all clean up and leave the place spotless. Last year over 2,000 people packed the small beach and everything went off without a hitch. Stay tuned for more!
Get out your Keystone Light and your Busch Light, it is the day of the Preakness Stakes! For those of you that don’t know, the Preakness is the second and trashiest leg of the Triple Crown. Young white trash from all over the northeast assemble at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore to get very drunk and run across the tops of port a potties. Apparently, a few people bet on and watch horse races there also.
We had Justify to win the Kentucky Derby and we’re sticking with him again to take the slightly shorter Preakness. Justify has been raced hard this year and apparently one hoof might be troubling him. Despite this, and his low odds, we’re standing pat on the side of a strong horse steered by the elite Mike Earl Smith. Apparently it’s going to be a sloppy in Maryland today, so I expect basically a rerun of the Derby. The field will be smaller this time and Justify will see a rematch with Good Magic, his toughest competition. Lone sailor could be in the money as well and nobody knows about Quip. He’s owned by the same farm as Justify and he sat out the Derby to wait for the Preakness. Man I love racing!
First and foremost the Sunset Sounds Cruise on Saturday was a big success. Maybe too big of a success. So many people wanted to get on the air that they were fighting for our seats. We had game show winners and losers. We had girls that Dan told to get the hell out of the chair. We had guys that Dan told to get the hell out of their chair. We had drunk girls spraying bubbles into the mixer. We almost lost the whole night because we didn’t have a screwdriver, thankfully the crew of the Yacht Starship came through for us. Big thanks to all of them, Andrew, and the other promoters as well. Everyone we saw had a great time. Also big thanks to each and every one of our sponsors:
Sundays Ice Cream in Palm Harbor. At the corner of Alderman and US 19.
Shell Gas Stations
Terrence, Dan’s sweet black barber.
Five Guys Restaurant
Treasure Island Fun Center
Lu – King of all Jits
Norma, through whom everything is possible.
And a special thanks to our friend Alicia for helping us out on short notice.
The episode was very long and needs to be edited for time. A lot of the girls had a hard time understanding that we were on the air and they needed to talk in the mic the whole time. Every time Dan reminded them of this, they cried and did it again anyway. You know by now we won’t edit out any of the good fighting, just stupid silence. It will be up sometime this week. Even though we all had headphones on, girls must have covered the mic and tried to mouth words to us no less than 50 times.
The podcast schedule has been slowed down as we work on the radio show, let’s catch up on those active bets. We have a bet on the Boston Red Sox to win the World Series at +1200. They’ve got a stacked lineup, two potential aces and maybe the best closer in the league, leading an incredibly strong bullpen. They might not win the division but expect them to make the wild card game. They are probably better suited than any other American League team to win a one game playoff, with Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel. Definite value here.
We also made some suggestions of the NHL Stanley Cup Winner. For the ultra conservative the Tampa Bay Lightning +650 still has some value. They’re guaranteed a playoff spot at this point and there team is as strong in defense as they are in offense, sporting the highest goal differential in the league. I personally avoid home team bets unless there is undeniable value. By betting them I feel like I’m making an emotional bet (big no no) and I never feel good about fading the home team either. Still the Lightning have made me money this year and have to be considered.
For the middle of the road bettor the Toronto Maple Leafs might be the best bet. At +1100 with a guaranteed play off spot, they are nothing to sneeze at. The Maple Leafs have the best record in the league when it comes to shootouts. I know there aren’t shoot outs in the playoffs but to me its a good sign that their goalie and their forwards play well under the biggest pressure.
For someone that wants a (potentially low) chance at big money the LA kings have to be considered. Because they are not locked in to the playoffs yet, their going off at +3300 odds. The team has to be in consideration though because they have arguably the best goalie in the league and made trade deadline moves with the goal of winning this year. For the first few months of the league the Kings we’re right alongside the Lightning as the most winning team in the league. They have a solid +24 goal differential which means they’re playing better than their recent luck suggests.
Finally we have a bet on the MLB home run leader. Not necessarily the most likely, Nelson Cruz has by far and away the most value of all of the competitors. He’s going off at an incredible +2800. With those odds if his chances of winning are even 3.5%, we make money. In 2014, he lead the league in home runs. In 2015, he was second in home runs. In 2016, he was second in home runs. Last year he was sixth in home runs. 2014, when he lead the league, was his most recent contract year. That’s important because this will likely be his last contract year as he’ll be 38 years old at seasons end. Expect him to put the pedal to the metal looking for the last 1-3 year contract of his career. He’s a pure power guy, and of all the tools in baseball, power declines the least with age. Get a piece of this bet.
Check out our radio bets every weekend on WZIG 104.1 FM if you’re in North Pinellas. No matter where you are WZIG streams live online 24/7 at http://www.wzig.org. Sports Predictions with Dan and Tony plays every Saturday at 10am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm and Sundays at 7am, 10am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm. Usually 5 minutes after the top of the hour.
We’ve been telling you for months and now the time is less than three weeks away. On Saturday March 10th, the Sunset Sounds Cruise sails out of Clearwater Harbor. The cruise will last a few hours and will feature more than a dozen artists across three stages. This whole party takes place on the 600 passenger, Yacht Starship, the largest ship in Tampa Bay. Life’s a Gamble will be broadcasting live the whole night while we host game shows for fabulous prizes. The price of tickets also includes a pre party and an after party. The whole event could run from 2 pm to 2 am for the super committed. This whole thing is right in the middle of Spring Break. Expect a rager.
Game Show Preview
Are You Smarter Than Nic? – Play against, or with, trivia Guru Nic
Dan, The Beast – Progressive level trivia game where you play against Dan, the trivia machine. Levels are structured so that he must do much better than you in order for him to win.
Dice of Fortune – Ripoff of Wheel of Fortune. Which is in itself a ripoff of Hangman. Roll a 20 sided dice to determine a prize and then go from there. Head, body, arms and legs. No fingers and toes bullshit. Meaning you’re 6th wrong answer kills your hangman.
Music Jeopardy – One player Jeopardy, which isn’t really Jeopardy. Almost entirely about Music, questions are worth different values and points are lost for wrong attempts.
The Price is Wrong – Guess the price people are trying to sell shit for on the internet. Think Craigslist and Facebook for sale groups.
Win Tony’s Alcohol – The ship sells alcohol all night long and in this game you can play for it. Be careful though, you’ll be playing against Tony, who really wants that alcohol.
Who Wants to Be a Gift Card Millionaire? – Face off against another contestant to see who plays and then climb your way up the ladder or play it safe and stick with a low prize. One wrong answer and you’re out!
Sunday’s Mini Donuts and Ice Cream in Palm Harbor. A brand new ice cream shop specializing in mini donuts. One lucky contestant on the cruise will win free mini donuts for one year!
Win gift cards to at least a half dozen other Bay area restaurants. We’re working to cover contestants from a wide area.
Tickets to the cruise will sell out very soon. Buy tickets and get more details right away at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sunset-sounds-cruise-spring-break-bigger-better-mega-yacht-tickets-41146121156?aff=eac2
We’ve been working on this about two months and we’re excited to say that tomorrow is the premiere of Dan and Tony’s Profitable Picks and Predictions sports betting radio segment. The segment will air 11 times each weekend alongside the Ray Kramer Sports Report. The times are Saturdays: 10 am, 12pm, 2pm, 4pm, 6pm. Sundays: 7 am, 10 am, 12 pm, 2 pm, 4 pm, 6 pm. If you’re in North Pinellas, West Hillsborough or south Pasco county you can listen in on FM 104.1 If you’re not local you can listen anywhere in the world on www.wzig.org
The segment will be two parts. Each week we’ll be explaining some new gambling term and separately providing predictions and bets for two of that weekends games. We’re starting off with our collective bet on Superbowl 52. Be sure to listen for us every weekend. Listen to WZIG in general, they’re a great variety station that plays literally everything. Number one hits that we’re released a few days ago to big band music from the 30s. The best thing is, there are no commercials ever. Head over to www.wzig.org and if you can spare it, make a donation to this very cool station. No commercials!
Two games tonight, lets see how they look.
First there’s Canadiens @ Bruins. Bruins look to win this game by more than a goal and a half. Over/under looks spot on, no value there. Bruins are -210 on the moneyline, that’s no fun. Bruins -1.5 is only +145 but they’re at home so I see value here. This is the lock.
Second game is Penguins @ Ducks. This game is razor close. Ducks have a slight numerical advantage, giving up fewer goals over the last month, and home ice. Both teams are -110 on the moneyline so we have to believe either one can win at least 53% of the time for us to break even. I don’t like that idea. The over under is also spot on, no value on either side. I don’t like the spread for either team, I see this game coming down to one goal. Skip this game altogether.
Lock: Bruins -1.5 (+145)
My only NFL bet this week is going to be on the Saints-Vikings game. The spread is Saints
+4 -110. This needs to come in 53% of the time for us to make money. I don’t really like the value in that but it’s not far off. Still, we can do better. Saints to win the game out right is +170. That only needs to happen 37% of the time for us start making money. I have the game handicapped completely even by the numbers. Saints have a better offense by about 5 ppg. Vikings have a better defense by about 5 ppg. Vikings will have home field but that’s not enough to get me away from that juicy +170. Saints +170 v. Vikings.
Wednesday, January 10th, was a very busy day all told. Let’s start from the beginning of the day and work our way through.
First I’m extremely happy to announce that we are now sponsored by Quickdog and its maker quickreckoning. Quickdog is greyhound handicapping software that automatically sources data from every track in the country. I’ve used it personally for ~2 years and we’re going to start using it for all of our episodes Live from Derby Lane. Quickdog will save us money because we don’t have to buy the programs anymore. Quickdog will also save us time in between races by distilling several of the columns in the program. Rather than manually figuring out 6 average times for all 8 dogs, Quickdog provides a simple average speed for every dog. Everything in the program can be edited, so for example you can choose to see the totaled results of the last 3 races of a dog or the last 30 races of a dog. The level of customization will please literally everybody. It can be as simple as you want. On the flipside if you’re so inclined you can make your method for selecting greyhounds and even test how will your system would have worked based on past results. The ability to rigorously test your system without spending a dime or even going to the the track is almost priceless. If you play dogs at just one local track I would suggest you use quickdog instead of the program. If you bet simulcast at multiple tracks you would be insane not to use Quickdog. The subscription includes past races and the next days program for every track in the United States. They even have data for UK tracks. Check out their website http://www.quickreckoning.com
Second, I screwed up some important details of the Sunset Sounds Cruise. I mentioned on a podcast that alcohol was included. Alcohol IS NOT included in the price of a ticket. Some small day cruises give away alcohol because they don’t want to obtain the incredibly expensive liquor license to sell it. That IS NOT the case on this cruise. It is a huge dinner ship that does have its own liquor license. Alcohol will be available but IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE PRICE OF A TICKET. This was totally my fault for assuming key details. At no time did any of the promoters tell me there was free alcohol. This was my mistake and I alone should be blamed. This podcast is in no way involved with organizing the cruise and nothing I say about it should be considered binding or held against the promoters. You should all still come on the cruise it will be a very good time and the tickets are a good deal. This same ship charges more for a simple two hour cruise without music. This is an all night deal with three levels of music. Pre-parties and after parties on shore. Get your tickets soon! The VIP really will sell out very quickly. The tickets are not refundable but could be potentially resold on the open market. Use promocode “Legwen” to save a couple bucks. Enough to buy a drink 😉
Buy your tickets and get all the correct details from the promoters here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sunset-sounds-cruise-spring-break-bigger-better-mega-yacht-tickets-41146121156?aff=eac2
Never take a comedian seriously.
Third, Tony and I hit two races at the horse track this afternoon. The horse track has been jam packed for the last few years and it’s very difficult to record there. It’s not a matter of permission, on the average race day the track is standing room only and we’re very hard to hear. The first race had 5 scratches out of 9 entries. So with 4 horses to choose from we obviously both bet $2 straight Trifectas. I was winning until the last 20 feet. Tony had the same luck on the next race, off by just a hair. We both lost two races, which was rough start to a day where the court was most likely going to demand $300 from me. Hence, must win Wednesday.
Fourth, we checked out some office space for a purpose built recording studio. This time we looked at a high rise in Largo. The prices were good and we liked what we saw and heard. Unlike the office we saw last week this one includes wired internet and wifi. That represents a pretty solid deal, business internet goes for $95 a month from the local cable company. Still working with the landlord to work out a potential price. We’re very excited about having our own studio and we’ll keep you up to date.
Fifth, was the court date for the speeding ticket I was contesting. Long story short I got an illegitimate speeding ticket from the least credible cop in the county in October. This man has been demoted, been suspended, been reprimanded and was responsible for the murder of a 19 year old man in 2002. The Sheriff’s Office tried rescheduling my court date multiple times but today was finally the day. I took a lot of time and effort and compiled a case that would be worthy of professional representation. I had all the facts about the Deputy, and about my car. I drive an old slow car and he was accusing me of going impossibly fast. When the time came the Deputy didn’t show up and the case against me was dismissed. I’m glad to be able to keep my last $300 in my pocket.
Finally we cut a new podcast tonight explaining most of what you just read. Tony had class tonight so our Superfan Lu joined in his place. Lu told us about his success as the King of the Jits. For new fans of the podcast, Lu was a heavyset 14 year old who asked us to make him the coolest kid in town. We gave him perfect advice, he worked harder than most people could ever dream of and I can confirm he absolutely is the coolest high school freshman in the history of the town. Eclipsing the former coolest high school freshman, yours truly. It’s long and rambling but if you’re a big fan of the show you’ll definitely want to catch up with Lu.
We’ll be at Derby Lane on Saturday night, January 13th. Come see us if you can. Wish us luck and listen in on the next podcast.
Here’s a couple of bets for tonight.
Lock: Bruins -110 over the Penguins. The Bruins are killing the Penguins in offense and defense over the last month. Really, they’re killing the whole league. Easy bet here.
Lean: Florida Panthers +145 over the Blue Jackets. Columbus is giving up a good bit more goals than the Panthers over the last month while their offenses are very similar. At +145 the Panthers only need to win 41% of the time to make us money. I think they’re just under 55% to win the game.
We’re going on a one night cruise and you’re all invited. Check out the event flyer but here are the important parts.
When: Saturday March 10th. All night including pre-party and after party.
Who: Dan, Tony, and Stacy. Along with 600 other lucky people.
Where: The Clearwater Harbor Marina on the 600 passenger Yacht Starship. A dinner cruise ship and the largest passenger ship in Tampa Bay.
What: A three story rave at sea. We have the promoters blessing to record live and we’ll have all sorts of crazy shit going on. We’ll be doing game show style trivia questions for lucky participants on board. Win fabulous prizes and hang out with us all night. Buy tickets quickly because they will sell out. VIP tickets are almost entirely sold out already. Use promo code “legwen” to save a few bucks. There will be no shortage of entertainment that night. Get tickets immediately. If you haven’t been to Clearwater Beach during Spring Break get down here.